Future, Change and Choices – Strategic planning methods for built environment professionals

Introduction i
Notes for Educators iv
Part 1: Strategic Planning approach and methods
Chapter 1
Unravelling complexity using a strategic approach 1
1.1 Facing an uncertain and unpredictable future 1
1.2 Origins of the strategic approach and its methodologies 2
1.3 Mindscapes – a way of thinking about the world and problem
solving 5
1.4 The nature of strategic decisions 6
1.5 Distinguishing characteristics of strategic planning
and planners 7
1.6 Strategic choice approach and hierarchies of choice 8
1.6.1 Planning under pressure – the strategic choice approach 8
1.6.2 Hierarchies of choise for complex development problems 9
1.7 What is different? A comparison of planning processes 12
1.7.1 A traditional planning process 12
1.7.2 Strategic planning processes 13
1.8 Outcomes of a strategic planning process 25
1.9 Conclusions 26
Notes for Educators: Chapter 1 28
Chapter 2
Understanding the core problem and the driving forces 30
2.1 Introduction 30
2.2 What is the development problem? 31
2.3 Characteristics of a strategic assessment 33
2.4 Techniques involving role player participation 36
2.4.1 Stakeholder analysis and engagement 37
2.4.2 Scoping 37
2.4.3 Brainstorming 38
2.4.4 Delphi 43
2.4.5 Focus groups 43
2.4.6 Stakeholder Participation Matrix 44
2.4.7 Participatory Appraisal of Competitive Advantage (PACA) 45
2.5 Conclusions 49
Notes for Educators: Chapter 2 50
Chapter 3
Unpacking and re-formulating the problem 52
3.1 Commonly used methods 52
3.2 Degrees of control analysis 53
3.3 SWOT analysis 54
3.4 Impact vs. Probability 58
3.5 Rules of the game and key uncertainties 59
3.6 Risk assessment 61
3.7 Synthetic – pulling it together to understand the core problem
and pivotal issues 64
Notes for Educators: Chapter 3 65
Chapter 4
Gazing into the future 66
4.1 Scenarios and scenario planning 66
4.2 Writing scenarios using rules of the game and
key uncertainties 68
4.3 Writing scenarios using AIDA 74
4.4 Red flags 83
4.5 Conclusions 83
Notes for Educators: Chapter 4 84
Chapter 5
Engaging with the future: formulating visions, strategies and
action plans
5.1 More than a dream – using scenarios to formulate a vision
and strategies 85
5.2 Vision and goals 86
5.3 Strategy formulation 93
5.4 Translating strategies into action plans 105
5.5 Conclusions 110
Notes for Educators: Chapter 5 111
Part 2: Case Studies
Chapter 6
Private sector response to crises: planning for the 21st century
in metropolitan Durban 114
6.1 South Africa in the mid-1980s 114
6.2 Durban Functional Region in the mid -1980s 116
6.3 Development problem and planning response 119
6.4 Essence of the plan 120
6.4.1 Strategic analysis 121
6.4.2 Likely future scenarios 123
6.4.3 Elements of a desired vision for DFR 127
6.4.4 Life in the DFR 128
6.5 Strategies and Action Plans 133
6.6 Linkages between the strategic analysis and the strategies 138
6.7 Conclusion – what were the outcomes? 140
6.8 Evaluation of the strategic planning methods used 144
Notes for Educators: Chapter 6 145
Chapter 7
Investment or disinvestment? Impact of a private sector
decision on a small town 146
7.1 Mount Edgecombe in the mid-1980s 146
7.2 Development problem and planning response 150
7.3 Strategic analysis 153
7.3.1 External analysis and forecast 153
7.3.2 Internal analysis 159
7.3.3 Synthesis 161
7.4 Decision areas and options 162
7.5 Future scenarios for Mt Edgecombe 164
7.6 Strategic decisions 175
7.7 Conclusion – what was the outcome? 176
7.8 Evaluation of the strategic planning methods used 177
Notes for Educators: Chapter 7 178
Chapter 8
Strategic planning on the run – urban reconstruction in
Cato Manor 179
8.1 A narrow window of opportunity 179
8.2 Complexity, uncertainty and urgency 180
8.3 Overview of the Cato Manor redevelopment initiative 181
8.4 Strategic issues, choices and responses 184
8.4.1 Adopting a strong, integrated policy framework 186
8.4.2 Shifting from a negotiating forum to a development
agency 191
8.4.3 Strategic partnerships for delivery 192
8.4.4 Operating as land agent rather than landowner 193
8.4.5 Securing funding from multiple sources 194
8.4.6 Pursuing ‘hard’ projects first 196
8.4.7 Changing course on local economic development 197
8.5 Conclusions and outcomes 201
8.6 Contribution of strategic planning approaches 203
Notes for Educators: Chapter 8 204
Postscript: Durban beyond 2010 206
Glossary of Terms 215
References 221
Index 232